新未名空间

Wil the market be surprised?

下午第二波疯涨，收盘纳斯达克暴涨5%。

尼玛AMD都要收红了

9月减息？

Yesterday market was expecting a surprise and didn't get it.

Start cutting rates in September. Bond is in a much better position to make you money than stock in next 12 months.

It's very possible that FED will have an emergency cut this year. Again bonds over stocks for next 12 months.

The @federalreserve won't panic over today's jobs numbers,
@ChicagoFed President
@Austan_Goolsbee
told me on @BloombergTV

Emergency cut might happen in August!

13F filling shows that Buffett has cash pile up to a record $277 billion.

That BOJ raised rate and FED is expected to cut is causing the unwinding of the Yen carry trade (~$20 trillion).

得，现在减息也不行了，减息会让日元更强势，yen carry-trade unwinding 更厉害。

最保险的还是买bond

不要慌， 一会儿老鮑出来给大家讲，只是transitory down

People are asking for it this week

ilovemynight 写了： 2024年 8月 2日 13:43 Emergency cut might happen in August!

The Fed Is Between a Rock and a Hard Place

Any "smartass" financial engineering has unintended consequence.

ilovemynight 写了： 2024年 8月 5日 07:32 得，现在减息也不行了，减息会让日元更强势，yen carry-trade unwinding 更厉害。

最保险的还是买bond

今天会熔断吗？

If you are young, you should embrace the bear market. That's how you can really make big money.