30y的高点 5.2
版主： 牛河梁
#2 Re: 30y的高点 5.2
美国国债拍卖枪手得很，看来小日本和欧洲在拼命抢购。。。
Investors in the $29 trillion Treasury market got a welcome dose of stability after an auction of 30-year bonds was met with strong demand.
Ye Xie and Carter Johnson
Thu, April 10, 2025 at 2:30 PM EDT
Longer-dated Treasuries pared their earlier losses after investors snapped up $22 billion of US government debt sold on Thursday, with 30-year yields lingering near 4.83%. Shorter-term notes, meanwhile, kept up a rally spurred by evidence that underlying US inflation ebbed last month.
For investors, the solid auction result is a signal that there are still plenty of buyers of Treasuries — even after this week’s intense volatility tied to President Donald Trump’s evolving trade policy eroded appetite for US assets and prompted questions about whether the nation’s debt remains the world’s favored haven.
“We did have a pretty large concession heading into the auction, which probably made it an attractive entry point for investors,” said Subadra Rajappa, head of US rates strategy at Societe Generale. “The auction metrics are relatively strong,” though she noted that investors still needed more compensation for risk than they did at the last 30-year bond auction.
Amid signs that investors were unwinding leveraged bond bets, selling of long-term debt caused yields to soar, with the 30-year briefly topping 5% on Wednesday for the first time in more than a year.
This week’s trio of auctions had been cause for further anxiety on Wall Street. While a three-year sale on Tuesday was met with tepid appetite, the 10-year auction the next day saw good demand, allaying concerns that tariffs would curb foreign demand for US bonds.
This was reinforced with Thursday’s 30-year offering, which drew a yield of 4.813%, the highest since January, compared to the 4.839% when-issued yield at the 1 p.m. New York time bidding deadline. The good result failed to ignite a rally, however.
“The demand was really from fast money traders” who quickly abandoned the issue, said David Robin, an interest-rate strategist at TJM Institutional Services LLC. Buy-and-hold accounts have “no sustainable interest. The long end is much too unsettled still,” and reliant on foreign demand that’s at risk of drying up, he said.
Still, data earlier on Thursday offered some reason for cheer in bonds as US inflation cooled broadly in March — before Trump’s April 2 unveiling of sweeping levies. Two-year yields were up five basis points to 3.85% after earlier climbing as much as 13 basis points. Traders priced in expectations for three interest-rate cuts in the remainder of 2025 starting in June, with a chance of a fourth.
“The downside surprise in inflation should be fairly encouraging to the rates market,” Gennadiy Goldberg, head of US interest rates strategy at TD Securities. Still, “the reaction may be brief as the market waits for more news on trade.”
Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at Charles Schwab, pointed out that the report doesn’t yet reflect the full extent of the tariffs — or anxiety surrounding changes in Trump’s policy.
The April 2 announcement had sent the bond market rallying as investors fretted that the US economy will end up worse off from a trade war. But the 90-day pause on most higher “reciprocal” levies on Wednesday spurred steep gains for stocks and a surge in short-term yields across much of the developed world as traders greeted the reprieve by scaling back bets on interest-rate cuts.
The yield on the German two-year note soared nearly 20 basis points before paring on expectations that the European Central Bank will need to ease less. In the UK, bonds rallied after borrowing costs hit their highest since 1998 this week.
“Bonds are signaling that the pause is significant, yet not much has fundamentally changed,” ING rates strategists led by Padhraic Garvey wrote in a note published Thursday. “Markets will not easily forget these episodes with wide market swings and thus the demand for safe assets should remain elevated.”
In Asian trading, Australia’s three-year bond yields surged Thursday by the most since September 2022. Japan was an outlier, with its longer-end bonds facing the most selling pressure: 10-year JGB yields rose 13 basis points to 1.40% at one point.
Investors in the $29 trillion Treasury market got a welcome dose of stability after an auction of 30-year bonds was met with strong demand.
Ye Xie and Carter Johnson
Thu, April 10, 2025 at 2:30 PM EDT
Longer-dated Treasuries pared their earlier losses after investors snapped up $22 billion of US government debt sold on Thursday, with 30-year yields lingering near 4.83%. Shorter-term notes, meanwhile, kept up a rally spurred by evidence that underlying US inflation ebbed last month.
For investors, the solid auction result is a signal that there are still plenty of buyers of Treasuries — even after this week’s intense volatility tied to President Donald Trump’s evolving trade policy eroded appetite for US assets and prompted questions about whether the nation’s debt remains the world’s favored haven.
“We did have a pretty large concession heading into the auction, which probably made it an attractive entry point for investors,” said Subadra Rajappa, head of US rates strategy at Societe Generale. “The auction metrics are relatively strong,” though she noted that investors still needed more compensation for risk than they did at the last 30-year bond auction.
Amid signs that investors were unwinding leveraged bond bets, selling of long-term debt caused yields to soar, with the 30-year briefly topping 5% on Wednesday for the first time in more than a year.
This week’s trio of auctions had been cause for further anxiety on Wall Street. While a three-year sale on Tuesday was met with tepid appetite, the 10-year auction the next day saw good demand, allaying concerns that tariffs would curb foreign demand for US bonds.
This was reinforced with Thursday’s 30-year offering, which drew a yield of 4.813%, the highest since January, compared to the 4.839% when-issued yield at the 1 p.m. New York time bidding deadline. The good result failed to ignite a rally, however.
“The demand was really from fast money traders” who quickly abandoned the issue, said David Robin, an interest-rate strategist at TJM Institutional Services LLC. Buy-and-hold accounts have “no sustainable interest. The long end is much too unsettled still,” and reliant on foreign demand that’s at risk of drying up, he said.
Still, data earlier on Thursday offered some reason for cheer in bonds as US inflation cooled broadly in March — before Trump’s April 2 unveiling of sweeping levies. Two-year yields were up five basis points to 3.85% after earlier climbing as much as 13 basis points. Traders priced in expectations for three interest-rate cuts in the remainder of 2025 starting in June, with a chance of a fourth.
“The downside surprise in inflation should be fairly encouraging to the rates market,” Gennadiy Goldberg, head of US interest rates strategy at TD Securities. Still, “the reaction may be brief as the market waits for more news on trade.”
Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at Charles Schwab, pointed out that the report doesn’t yet reflect the full extent of the tariffs — or anxiety surrounding changes in Trump’s policy.
The April 2 announcement had sent the bond market rallying as investors fretted that the US economy will end up worse off from a trade war. But the 90-day pause on most higher “reciprocal” levies on Wednesday spurred steep gains for stocks and a surge in short-term yields across much of the developed world as traders greeted the reprieve by scaling back bets on interest-rate cuts.
The yield on the German two-year note soared nearly 20 basis points before paring on expectations that the European Central Bank will need to ease less. In the UK, bonds rallied after borrowing costs hit their highest since 1998 this week.
“Bonds are signaling that the pause is significant, yet not much has fundamentally changed,” ING rates strategists led by Padhraic Garvey wrote in a note published Thursday. “Markets will not easily forget these episodes with wide market swings and thus the demand for safe assets should remain elevated.”
In Asian trading, Australia’s three-year bond yields surged Thursday by the most since September 2022. Japan was an outlier, with its longer-end bonds facing the most selling pressure: 10-year JGB yields rose 13 basis points to 1.40% at one point.
