下周的 IPO Pattern 和 StubHub值得打吗？

[Techydata]

呼唤大牛点评

[Techydata]

AI:
Both Pattern Group and StubHub have major IPOs planned for September 2025, each presenting distinct sector growth potential and risks for investors.

Pattern Group IPO Overview
Date & Ticker: Scheduled for September 19, 2025, on NASDAQ under the symbol PTRN.

Valuation & Offering: Targets up to $2.64B valuation; intends to sell ₂₁.4M shares at $13-$15 per share, aiming to raise up to $321M.

Sector & Fundamentals: Leading e-commerce reseller/accelerator, strong profitable history (reported $32.1M net income), with most 2024 revenue coming from Amazon sales.

Growth Drivers: Proceeds will fund geographic expansion and tech, especially AI-driven analytics for marketplace optimization.

Risks & Opportunities: Faces intense competition but benefits from robust e-commerce market trends and a differentiated AI/data platform. Valuation aligns with sector dynamics, and Goldman Sachs/J.P. Morgan lead the offering.

StubHub IPO Overview
Date & Ticker: Expected in September 2025, listed on NYSE as STUB.

Valuation & Offering: Targets a $9.2B valuation, with 34M shares offered at $22-$25 each for up to $851M raised.

Sector & Fundamentals: Iconic ticket resale platform; first-half 2025 revenue up 3% to $827.9M, gross merchandise sales over $8.7B for 2024, but net loss widened to -$76M (from -$24M YoY).

Leadership & Control: CEO Eric Baker retains near-majority board voting control due to Class B shares.

Risks & Opportunities: Growth is steady, though profitability remains an issue and valuation is high (_37x EV/EBITDA). Market trends favor experiences over goods, and the IPO is seen as a bellwether for consumer-facing listings.

Comparison Table
Aspect Pattern Group StubHub
Sector E-commerce accelerator Ticket resale
Expected Valuation $2.64B $9.2B
Offer Size $321M (21.4M shares) $851M (34M shares)
Pricing Range $13–$15 $22–$25
Profitability Profitable Net loss widening
Key Growth Driver Tech/AI analytics, expansion Shift to experiences
Listing Exchange NASDAQ (PTRN) NYSE (STUB)
Lead Underwriters GS, JPM Noted but less detailed
Evaluation
Pattern Group stands out for profitability, a realistic valuation, AI/data-driven platform, and exposure to the e-commerce growth wave.

StubHub offers scale and recognized branding, but faces profitability challenges and a relatively steep valuation multiple.

Both IPOs are attracting investor attention as signals of post-summer IPO market strength, but Pattern may appeal more to those prioritizing fundamental profits and tech enablement versus StubHub’s brand and broader consumer sector positioning.

Investors should closely review the sector risks, valuation multiples, and each company's recent financials and strategic roadmap before participating.

[Techydata]

看起来，Pattern更热门一点，也有营业利润

[Techydata]

Pattern Group (ticker: PTRN), an e-commerce accelerator that helps brands optimize sales on platforms like Amazon, Walmart, and TikTok Shop, is gearing up for its U.S. IPO. The company filed with the SEC in late August 2025 and set terms on September 10, 2025, to offer 21.4 million shares priced between $13 and $15 each, aiming to raise up to $321 million at a fully diluted valuation of about $2.64 billion. The shares will list on Nasdaq, with Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan as lead underwriters. The roadshow is underway, and pricing is expected soon, potentially leading to a debut in the coming weeks amid a resurgent IPO market.
Whether this IPO will be "good" depends on your perspective—short-term trading gains, long-term investment potential, or overall market reception. It's not a slam-dunk like some high-profile 2025 debuts (e.g., Figma or Circle), but Pattern shows solid fundamentals in a booming sector. Below, I'll break it down based on recent financials, market context, and expert sentiment. Note: This isn't financial advice; IPOs carry risks like volatility, lock-up expirations, and economic shifts.
Key Financial Highlights
Pattern has demonstrated consistent growth and profitability, which bodes well for investor interest. Here's a snapshot from its S-1 filing:

Metric2024 (Full Year)H1 2025YoY Change (H1)Revenue$1.80 billion$1.14 billion+35%Net Income$68 million$47 million+34%Adjusted EBITDA$101 millionN/A+138% (2-yr)Net Revenue Retention116%N/AN/A

Growth Drivers: Revenue comes mostly from reselling partner brands' products on marketplaces (94% from Amazon in 2024, 93% U.S.-based). The company partners with 200+ brands (e.g., Bosch, Tumi) across 60+ platforms, using AI and data analytics for optimization. This has fueled rapid scaling since its 2013 founding.
Profitability: Unlike many growth-stage e-com firms, Pattern is profitable with stable ₄₃% gross margins. Proceeds from the IPO (about half primary shares) will fund tech expansion, acquisitions, and working capital.
Valuation Metrics: At $15/share, the price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is ₁.47x 2024 revenue, reasonable for e-com but elevated vs. mature peers (e.g., Shopify at _10x). Price-to-earnings (P/E) is _62x, reflecting growth expectations in a market projected to hit $8.3 trillion globally by year-end.

Pros: Why It Could Be a Strong IPO

Market Tailwinds: E-commerce is exploding, with global revenue expected to grow 9.5% annually to $4+ trillion by 2029. Online marketplaces like Amazon dominate (58% of 2024 revenue), and Pattern ranks #2 in U.S. Amazon reselling per Marketplace Pulse. The IPO wave (e.g., Klarna, StubHub) has restored confidence after an April 2025 slowdown from tariff fears.
Business Moat: High retention (87% brand partners, 116% NRR) and AI-driven tools differentiate it from pure resellers. It's evolved from a living-room startup to a tech platform, positioning it for cross-marketplace expansion (e.g., TikTok Shop, Mercado Libre).
Investor Sentiment: Analysts see it as a "compelling bet" on e-com infrastructure, with potential for valuation expansion if growth sustains. Pre-IPO valuation jumped from $2 billion (2021 funding) to $2.64 billion, signaling strong backer confidence (e.g., Knox Lane). On X, traders highlight its "boring but scalable" model and AI edge, with some eyeing listing pops similar to recent IPOs.
Timing: The "golden age" for U.S. IPOs (IPOX 100 index up 25% YTD) favors growth stories like this. If priced at the high end and markets stay buoyant, it could debut with 20-40% gains, per patterns in similar 2025 tech IPOs.

Cons: Potential Risks and Why It Might Underperform

Concentration Risks: 94% Amazon reliance is a red flag—policy changes, fees, or competition could hit hard. U.S.-heavy revenue (93%) exposes it to domestic slowdowns.
Valuation Stretch: At 62x P/E, it's pricey for an e-com play; broader market volatility (e.g., Amazon's ±15% swings) could drag it down. Recent IPOs like Figma dropped 50% post-debut due to profit-taking.
Competition and Cyclicality: Faces rivals like Shopify and AI upstarts. E-com margins are thin and sensitive to consumer spending; a recession could stall growth.
Market Chatter: On X and Reddit, some traders plan to "flip" shares quickly, citing typical IPO patterns (opening surge, then sell-off). Broader sentiment is cautious, with forums noting tepid QIB interest in similar deals leading to post-listing dips.
Overall Outlook
Pattern's IPO looks promising for long-term holders betting on e-commerce's structural growth—its profitability and retention make it more resilient than hype-driven peers. Short-term, expect volatility: a strong debut if sentiment holds, but watch for post-pop fades common in 2025 IPOs (e.g., 8-15% average underperformance in the first month for non-blockbusters). If you're risk-tolerant and believe in Amazon's ecosystem, it could be "good" (potentially 30%+ upside in 12 months). For conservative investors, wait for post-IPO stabilization. Track the roadshow updates and final pricing for clearer signals.

[koko]

Pattern看起来不错。Stubhub我目测是运营不善，上市来圈钱还债的，也没啥growth可言，应该是个坑。